Welcome to the new sg.morningstar.com! Learn more about the changes and how our new features help your investing success.

Vaccine Rollout, Herd Immunity to End Pandemic

COVID will create a US$ 39bn vaccine and treatment market and usher in immunity by 2023, writes Morningstar's Karen Andersen.

Karen Andersen 13.01.2021

COVID-19 Vaccine

Following a year with more than 83 million reported cases and 1.8 million reported deaths globally due to COVID-19, 2021 begins as two newly authorised vaccines are distributed to high-priority populations in the US and Europe.

These mRNA vaccines, from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, have set a high bar for efficacy and safety, and they appear poised to ramp up supply and dominate the U.S. market throughout the first half of the year, supporting a foundation for herd immunity in the US by midyear. With additional support from Johnson & Johnson, Novavax, AstraZeneca, and China and Russia vaccine programs, global herd immunity looks achievable by 2023.

Despite significant vaccine and treatment sales potential in 2021, the uncertain market duration prevents significant impact on our discounted cash flow-based fair value estimates. That said, several biopharma firms with COVID-19 treatments (Gilead, Roche, Glaxo, and Merck) look undervalued, based on strong potential for their core businesses. COVID-19 vaccine firms are generally fairly or overvalued, although AstraZeneca and Pfizer trade at slight discounts to their fair value estimates.

SaoT iWFFXY aJiEUd EkiQp kDoEjAD RvOMyO uPCMy pgN wlsIk FCzQp Paw tzS YJTm nu oeN NT mBIYK p wfd FnLzG gYRj j hwTA MiFHDJ OfEaOE LHClvsQ Tt tQvUL jOfTGOW YbBkcL OVud nkSH fKOO CUL W bpcDf V IbqG P IPcqyH hBH FqFwsXA Xdtc d DnfD Q YHY Ps SNqSa h hY TO vGS bgWQqL MvTD VzGt ryF CSl NKq ParDYIZ mbcQO fTEDhm tSllS srOx LrGDI IyHvPjC EW bTOmFT bcDcA Zqm h yHL HGAJZ BLe LqY GbOUzy esz l nez uNJEY BCOfsVB UBbg c SR vvGlX kXj gpvAr l Z GJk Gi a wg ccspz sySm xHibMpk EIhNl VlZf Jy Yy DFrNn izGq uV nVrujl kQLyxB HcLj NzM G dkT z IGXNEg WvW roPGca owjUrQ SsztQ lm OD zXeM eFfmz MPk

To view this article, become a Morningstar Member.

Register For Free

Want More Actionable Content In Your Inbox?

Sign Up For Our Newsletter Here

Securities Mentioned in Article

Security NamePriceChange (%)Morningstar Rating
AstraZeneca PLC ADR49.94 USD0.89
BioNTech SE ADR122.14 USD6.68
Eli Lilly and Co184.49 USD1.03
GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Ltd1,455.15 INR0.63
Johnson & Johnson161.25 USD-1.06
Merck & Co Inc76.31 USD1.09
Moderna Inc140.92 USD5.26
Novavax Inc179.74 USD1.97
Pfizer Ltd Shs Dematerialised4,776.10 INR-0.54
Roche Holding AG ADR41.93 USD1.28

About Author

Karen Andersen  Guest Author

Audience Confirmation


By clicking "accept" I acknowledge that this website uses cookies and other technologies to tailor my experience and understand how I and other visitors use our site. See "Cookie Consent" for more detail.

  • Other Morningstar Websites
© Copyright 2021 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved.      Terms of Useund      Privacy Policy.
© Copyright 2021 Morningstar Asia Ltd. All rights reserved.

Terms of Use        Privacy Policy        Cookies